In Memoriam

Seventeen years of silence and brutality...

Goldman to Gold Man...

Belgravia Dispatch is enthused by the appointment of former Goldman Sachs executive Hank Paulson as the new Treasury Secretary, replacing John Snow. Importantly:

The question is whether Bush will give the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief executive officer the leeway to run Treasury and shape policy like Rubin, Bill Clinton's top economic adviser. Under Bush, no one has been allowed to take that role. Outgoing Treasury Secretary John Snow and his predecessor, Paul O'Neill weren't part of the president's inner circle and were relegated to being salesmen of White House ideas. No sooner had Paulson been nominated yesterday than administration officials were insisting he would have a seat at the table.

The Bush White House is irritated that consistently good economic numbers (GDP growth, low unemployment) are not translating well from the Potomac to Peoria. Hopefully, Paulson will be able to use his new Washington bullhorn to spread the cheer...

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attempted to salvage his increasingly marginal influence by calling for a referendum in the West Bank & Gaza on the two-state solution - a clearly intended stab at Hamas' refusal to recognize the statehood of Israel. Kaffiyeh-philes across the Arab World, however, are incensed at this step backward for The Struggle:

Hamas's reluctance to accept the referendum stems from its fear that its outcome would deepen and complicate the internal Palestinian crisis, especially between Fatah and Hamas. Hamas argues that the real problem is Israel's refusal to give up the spoils of the 1967 War, not its non-recognition of Israel...

The world let out a disappointed sigh when Darfur-ian rebels did not reach agreement on a peace deal with the Sudanese government, contrasting their actions with their image as victims. Alan Kuperman illustrates the history of this "strategic victimhood" in NYT:

Darfur was never the simplistic morality tale purveyed by the news media and humanitarian organizations. The region's blacks, painted as long-suffering victims, actually were the oppressors less than two decades ago - denying Arab nomads access to grazing areas essential to their survival. Violence was initiated not by Arab militias but by the black rebels who in 2003 attacked police and military installations.

The most extreme Islamists are not in the government but in a faction of the rebels sponsored by former Deputy Prime Minister Hassan al-Turabi, after he was expelled from the regime. Cease-fires often have been violated first by the rebels, not the government, which has pledged repeatedly to admit international peacekeepers if the rebels halt their attacks.

In spite of rallies and admonitions, Darfur is gradually falling by the wayside. Max Boot demands action. Since no nation is willing to cough up large numbers of troops to stop the genocide, Boot suggests mercenaries:

A number of commercial security firms such as Blackwater USA are willing, for the right price, to send their own forces, made up in large part of veterans of Western militaries, to stop the genocide. We know from experience that such private units would be far more effective than any U.N. peacekeepers. In the 1990s, the South African firm Executive Outcomes and the British firm Sandline made quick work of rebel movements in Angola and Sierra Leone.

However, in both cases, these firms were invited by the host government to deal with rebellions. Sudan had to be dragged like a petulant child through the motions of securing African Union involvement, and is not expected to start clamoring for more foreign troops.

Pleading the Fourth (Estate)...

In spite of last year's Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, press freedom there remains largely muzzled, as the results of the Freedom House survey demonstrate. Of all the "revolutions" in the former Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan's was the least satisfying in both scope and results:

As an executive director of the TV channel NTS that strives to survive and retain its right on the independent opinion and coverage Andrey Tsvetkov, for instance, admits that old practices of intimidating phone calls and indirect threats from officials are again very much in place. He emphasizes: “Authorities keep interfering into mass media business trying to manipulate journalists.

One result of the destruction of terrorist-training camps in Afghanistan is the diffusion of jihadi theorists internationally. The Washington Post details the story of one such individual - Mustafa Setmariam Nasser, a Spaniard of Syrian origin:

With the Afghanistan base lost, he argued, radicals would need to shift their approach and work primarily on their own, though sometimes with guidance from roving operatives acting on behalf of the broader movement....Nasar, 47, outlines a strategy for a truly global conflict on as many fronts as possible and in the form of resistance by small cells or individuals, rather than traditional guerrilla warfare. To avoid penetration and defeat by security services, he says, organizational links should be kept to an absolute minimum.

An illuminating example of the spasmodic nature of al-Qaeda, as highlighted by scholars like Jessica Stern in her excellent 2003 piece in Foreign Affairs.

"Think-tanks" are a dime-a-dozen here in Washington DC. One of the real McCoys is SITE: the Search for International Terrorist Entities, which trolls international media and websites to track the latest developments in Jihadia. One of their researchers, Rita Katz, is profiled in the most recent New Yorker:

Katz, who was born in Iraq and speaks fluent Arabic, spends hours each day monitoring the password-protected online chat rooms in which Islamic terrorists discuss politics and trade tips: how to disperse botulinum toxin or transfer funds, which suicide vests work best. Occasionally, a chat-room member will announce that he is turning in his user name and password and going to Iraq to become a martyr, a shaheed. Several weeks later, his friends will post a report of the young man blowing himself up. Katz usually logs on at six in the morning. When she has guests for dinner, she leaves a laptop open on the kitchen counter, so she can check for updates. “It is completely addicting,” she says. “You wake up thinking, I’ve been offline for seven hours, but the terrorists have been making plans.”

One of GWOT's many foot-soldiers...

Finally, Andrew Sullivan has an inspiring quote from Tony Blair - who will be speaking this week at my university, although I can't attend due to my summer job commitments.

Sad to say you're on your way...

The Netherlands finally gave the boot to former MP Ayaan Hirsi Ali, a refugee from Kenya who became an outspoken voice against Islamic fundamentalism. The demarche was handed down as a result of supposed duplicity on an immigration form, although this information was in the public domain for a while.

The fact is the Dutch got weary of protecting a woman who was clearly in the cross-hairs of Dutch jihadi-s. Following the assassination of Theo van Gogh, the Dutch are now officially in full appeasement mode. Ali is said to be on her way to the United States, and will apparently be taking up a position at AEI. Pronounceth Hitch thus:

It will be delightful to have Ayaan Hirsi Ali in Washington. But the American Enterprise Institute, which has offered her a perch, is not the place where she is most needed. In Holland, every day, extremist imams preach intolerance and cruelty, and, when they are criticized, invoke the help of foreign embassies to bring pressure on the Dutch authorities. They face no risk of expulsion.

Opinion columns in the Arab media follow the most predictable pattern: writing patterned around narrative, not to be inconvenienced by facts or context. For example, the Daily Star (Lebanon) chides the United States on its tardiness in criticizing the Egyptians for their less-than-democratic presidential elections (and continuing hounding of liberals like Ayman Nour): the headline reads "US Slowness to Criticize Egypt is Latest Example of Double Standard."

In which case, shame about this story which was released the previous day: "Egypt rejects US criticism over Nour case."

You can check out anytime you like...

Blogger Michael Totten has been travelling through the Middle East these last few months. After a trip through Iraqi Kurdistan, he experienced some minor difficulties getting back into Turkey, including smuggler-taxi drivers, bribes and lots of hand gestures...

Many analysts have attempted to draw parallels between Iraq and Malaya - suggesting that the Americans follow the counter-insurgency pattern used by the British in late 1940s South East Asia. However, as Caroline Elkins explains, that might not be apt:

To be sure, Britain's counterinsurgency operations in Malaya were a short-term success. British forces reestablished order and disengaged from imperial occupation. But the hearts-and-minds campaign, the theoretical backbone of Britain's counterinsurgency strategy, was more myth than reality. To seize civilian control, the British created a police state and invoked draconian powers ranging from movement-restriction and collective punishments to detention without trial. Winning the war against insurgents came at a high price for the local civilian population and for the independent state that picked up the mantle from its former colonizer. Rather than serving as a historical precedent for a successful hearts-and-minds campaign, the British campaign in Malaya illustrates the dangers of continuing our current strategy in Iraq.

OxBlog weighs in on the Anti-Rumsfeld General's Revolt in Washington:

Retired Air Force Gen. Ronald R. Fogleman told journalist George C. Wilson that things had changed dramatically after the new Secretary of Defense arrived. Wilson writes that:

"[Fogleman] did not feel he could dissent vigorously without being penalized in the minds of his civilian bosses. "Your position was not looked upon as a legitimate disagreement from a professional but as an act of disloyalty.""

Fogleman resigned as Air Force Chief of Staff and entered retirment in order to protest the Secretary's refusal to accept Fogleman's professional opinion about who was responsible for unnecessary US casulaties in the Gulf.Fogleman's quote is from p.43 of Wilson's book This War Really Matters...which was published back in 2000 when Bill Cohen was the Secretary of Defense. In other words, this bit of information disrupts a lot of narratives being spun out of the recent attacks on the current secretary.

The Coup Eighty doesn't believe that Donald Rumsfeld ought to be given the boot for "not listening to the generals." In this country, the military is absolutely subservient to its civilian master - that is the only way that the people of the United States (in theory) have any democratic accountability over the only legal militia in the land. This is the bedrock principle of civil-military relations, and cannot be compromised. However, the "SecDef" ought to be fired for deliberately ignoring the vast amount of planning done for post-war Iraq, in the rush to go to war, and consequently botching the occupation. If that doesn't suffice, we're also saddled with the guilt of Abu Ghraib.

With all the hoo-hah surrounding the visit of Hu Jintao, the visit of another head of state has been overshadowed: that of Ilham Aliyev, the (sort-of elected) president of Azerbaijan. Philip Stephens, at FT, finds this latter visit to be more symbolic of the direction of US foreign policy:

So why wouldn’t Mr Bush welcome such a stalwart ally at the White House? The answer is that Mr Aliyev has consistently brushed aside calls from Washington to edge his country closer to freedom and democracy – and the US president has put the spread of political pluralism front and centre of his foreign policy.

Now, if it wants to preserve any credibility, Washington must be seen to act where it can. And, in truth, Azerbaijan is one of the easiest cases. Its relationship with the west is grounded in mutual dependency. For all that Mr Aliyev might threaten to turn towards Moscow, he has no desire to embrace Russia. He wants the west’s approval and investment in Caspian oil. He is susceptible, in other words, to pressure.

Iraq the Model is skeptical that Iraq's new PM-nominee, Jawad al-Maliki, will be able to create the aura of a 'national unity government' and effectively deal with the insurgency:

Iraq will–in my opinion-continue to descend for the next four years in the same way it's been doing since the interim government was installed last year. And after all, the UIA's decision to replace Jafari with al-Adeeb or al-Maliki is a solution designed for preserving the brittle unity of the UIA and not for the creation of a unity government because they know very well that the rest of blocs were hoping to see Abdul Mahdi replace Jafari...

Double-plus-ungood

Brussels Journal is keeping us up-to-date on attempts to foist an EU-wide media code for reportage on Islam:

The term “Islamic terrorism” will no longer be used. Nor will words such as “Islamist,” “fundamentalist” and “jihad.” The latter, for example, is often used by Islamic terrorists to mean warfare against infidels, but according to an EU official “for a Muslim Jihad is a perfectly positive concept of trying to fight evil within yourself.” Hence, in order not to alienate young Muslims the term “Islamic terrorism” is to be replaced by “terrorism abusing Islam.”

So, does "American imperialism" become "imperialism abusing America"?

Simon Tisdall highlights one of Singapore's few political dissidents: Chee Soon Juan, who has, in ten years, been "jailed four times, fined, dismissed from his job as a university lecturer, sued by the country's "minister mentor" Lee Kuan Yew, bankrupted and barred from running in elections."

The Singaporean government continues its draconian police-state enforcements upon its people - and for what? Well, chewing gum is mighty dangerous...

Needless to say, the government defends the politburo style of governance:

"I hope we are improving by our standards. Whether we are improving by your standards or American standards is a different question," said the foreign minister, George Yeo. "Our responsibility is to Singaporeans, and what we do here should meet their approval. There are no universal prescriptions."

Hmm, wonder what this is, then.

The Acorn is keeping a wary eye on Saudi efforts to develop a nuclear program:

This could be posturing (for the benefit of Arab audiences), signaling (to dissuade Iran from going nuclear), indication of its nuclear plans or all of the above. It certainly has kept its options open — its facilities are outside international scrutiny, it has not signed the comprehensive test-ban treaty and it has the necessary scientific infrastructure in place. Despite all this, the decision to ‘launch’ a nuclear weapons programme is by no means straightforward. Saudi Arabia’s beneficial security relationship with the United States — which not only secures the kingdom but also secures the king himself — will come under tremendous stress. There is, in addition, the risk of preventive Israeli strikes, especially if the United States can keep a lid on the Pakistani nuclear angle. Not to speak, of course, of the havoc even the prospect of all this will create on international energy prices.

Of course, the factor that pours cold water over all this is the highly unprofessional nature of the Saudi military and the Saudi government's more immediate concerns with domestic radicalism, terrorist cells, unemployment and a restive Shi'a population.

They Say It's Spring...

Spring time in Washington heralds the annual bloom of the cherry blossoms - so here's saying "domo arigato" to those to brought them here in the first place.

Lord, I was born a Ramblin' Man...

POTUS is trying to regain his Man-of-the-People image by ratcheting up the informality and aw-shucks humor:

As he takes to the road to salvage his presidency, Bush is letting down his guard and playing up his anti-intellectual, regular-guy image. Where he spent last year in rehearsed forums with select supporters, these days he is more frequently throwing aside the script and opening himself to questions from audiences that are not prescreened. These sessions have put a sometimes playful, sometimes awkward side back on display after years of trying to keep it under control to appear more presidential.

Call it the let-Bush-be-Bush strategy. The result is a looser president, less serious at times, even at times when humor might seem out of place. Aides used to dread such settings, worried about gaffes or the way Bush might come across in spontaneous exchanges. But with his poll numbers somewhere south of the border, they concluded that Bush handles back-and-forth better than he once did -- and that they have little left to lose.

An example:

President Bush was taking questions from an audience the other day when he was asked about the immigration debate raging in Washington.
"It's obviously topic du jour ," he said.
The audience laughed at the famously Francophobic Texan's faux accent.
"Pretty fancy, huh?" Bush asked, mocking himself. "Topic du jour ?"
The audience laughed again.
"I don't want to ruin the image," he added conspiratorially.

Well, if it works, what the heck...

Zimbabwe's downward spiral is now being displayed in the most sickening fashion: ordinary Zimbabweans who can no longer afford to feed their children are abandoning newborn babies.

The dumping of babies, along with what doctors describe as a “dramatic” increase in malnourished children in city hospitals, is the most shocking illustration of the economic collapse of a country that was once the breadbasket of southern Africa.

The dead gutter babies are the most pitiful victims of a government that believes it can starve its people into compliance, or death, turning Zimbabwe into the only country in the region with a shrinking population.

Of course, none of this stops Mugabe from slamming the West for "world hunger", alongside his buddy - leftist dictator Hugo Chavez.

Those of us here in the United States have been chuckling at the French insistence that modernity kindly stop at the shores of La Republique. But the CPE debacle might cost Dominique de Villepin his political backing from Jacques (article in French).